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Industrial Manufacturing Will Usher In A Bright Future In 2019
- Feb 07, 2019 -

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2018, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year (the growth rate of the added value is the actual growth rate after deducting the price factor), which is the third consecutive month that the growth rate of industrial added value is below 6%,in the same period last year, the growth rate of industrial added value was 6.1%.

Xin Guobin, deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that since the second half of last year, especially after the third quarter, with the combination of global economic slowdown, domestic active restructuring and risk prevention, the industrial growth rate has been slowing for several months. There are some fluctuations, and this is also the fact that the anxiety of the business community has increased.

He believes that this issue should be viewed from the following dimensions:

First of all, the overall operation of the industrial economy is kept in a reasonable range, and the actual operation results are better than expected. When determining the target of industrial added value growth in the 2018 year, the original target is 6%.From January to November, the growth rate of industrial added value of the national regulations was 6.3%. Even if the low-speed growth was maintained in December, the target tasks for the whole year were guaranteed.

Among these indicators, some economic indicators are still relatively good, such as the efficiency indicators. In the first 11 months, the profits of industrial enterprises on the national scale increased by 11.8%, and the profit rate of the main business income increased by 0.16 percentage points.

In terms of investment, driven by factors such as improved corporate efficiency, accelerated energy conservation and environmental protection, and accelerated development of emerging industries, manufacturing investment in the first 11 months increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and rebounded to a higher level in recent years.The growth rate of industrial investment in 2016 and 2017 is relatively low, and there has been a marked improvement.

Second, from the perspective of judging economic operations, it is normal to have some fluctuations in the short term. What is more important is to see whether the fundamentals of development are normal.Some changes are the impact of external factors, but some are also the price that structural adjustment has to pay, and China is taking the initiative.

In the long run, the fundamentals of China's industrial development are good, and the structural problems affecting the sustainable and healthy development of industry are being gradually solved.

For example, China has carried out a tough battle against pollution prevention and cleanup, and has cleaned up a large number of “scattering and pollution” enterprises, which will affect the industrial output value of some industries and regions to a certain extent, and also free up market space for advanced compliance production capacity.

Another example is the steel industry. In recent years, China has unswervingly resolved the excess capacity of steel. The order of production and operation in the industry has been greatly improved, and market prices are gradually picking up.In the first three quarters, the capacity utilization rate of the steel industry reached 78.1%, and it recovered to an ideal interval. In the first 11 months, the profit of the steel industry increased by 50.2% year-on-year, and the profit situation was also very good.

Third, Xin Guobin pointed out that China's national economy is in the transition period of new and old kinetic energy. Some industries are slowing down the growth, but at the same time, it should be seen that some new kinetic energy is forming steadily.Although in the short term, these new growth momentum is not enough to offset the impact of some industry declines in the past, this positive factor is very much appreciated.

"For example, in the recent automotive industry, which reflected a lot of people, in 2018, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.81 million and 28.08 million, respectively, down 4.2% and 2.8% from the previous year.Why is the industry down? There are policy factors here, such as the vehicle purchase tax preferential policy expires at the end of 2017, this policy factor causes some consumption to be released in advance.At the same time, the automotive industry also has some new highlights, such as new energy vehicles. In 2018, production and sales reached 1.27 million and 1.26 million, an increase of 59.9% and 61.7% respectively.Although it accounts for less than 5% of the total sales of the automotive industry, this growth is very good. ”

Because of its high output value, the automotive industry has highly motivated for the overall industrial growth data.Xin Guobin believes that the decline in car sales is not a sign that the entire auto industry will continue this trend in 2019."After the car ownership has reached a certain scale, it is unrealistic to continue high growth, but it will not be subject to large fluctuations and ups and downs.The demand for third- and fourth-tier cities will continue to be released. With the implementation of new environmental standards, the elimination of some old models will accelerate.Therefore, in 2019, the automobile production and sales situation, we think it should remain optimistic.” Xin Guobin said.

Xin Guobin analyzed the structural changes that are taking place in industrial manufacturing: from the perspective of overall industrial conditions, high-tech manufacturing continued to maintain rapid growth in the context of slowing growth in traditional manufacturing.In the first 11 months of 2018, the growth rate of value added of high-tech manufacturing reached 11.8%, which was significantly faster than the overall industrial growth rate, and its proportion in the overall industry increased, reaching 13.6%.However, although some traditional industries have reduced the role of the entire industrial economy, new kinetic energy is constantly being cultivated, and the driving role is also increasing, but the task of structural adjustment is still very arduous.

Xin Guobin finally stressed that this year's Central Economic Work Conference put the promotion of high-quality manufacturing industry at the top of the seven key tasks in 2019, emphasizing that manufacturing is the foundation of the country and the foundation of a strong country, facing the construction and manufacturing power at the strategic level,a specific deployment has been made, which is rare for many years. Therefore, there is every reason to believe that China's industrial manufacturing industry will usher in a bright future in 2019.