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The Key Year- Three Key Words To See The Direction Of China's Economy
- Feb 02, 2019 -

2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China and is a crucial year for building a well-off society in an all-round way. The key year must plan key issues.

Facing the profound changes in the external environment, the "five adherences" and "six stability" outline the general direction of China's economic work in 2019.The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out the driving direction for the Chinese economy's ships in 2019: adhere to the general tone of steady progress, adhere to the new development concept, persist in promoting high-quality development, adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, and insist on deepening marketization reform, expand high-level openness, speed up the construction of a modern economic system, continue to lay down three major battles, and strive to stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects...

Keyword 1: Opportunity

China is still in and will be in a period of important strategic opportunities

In 2018, despite the storms and challenges, the Chinese economy is still moving steadily.In the first three quarters, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 6.7%. New jobs in cities and towns completed the target tasks ahead of schedule, prices continued to rise moderately, the three major battles started well, supply-side structural reforms advanced in depth, and reforms and opening up were strengthened. Safely cope with Sino-US trade friction, people's lives have continued to improve, maintaining sustained and healthy economic development and overall social stability.

“Since the international financial crisis in 2008, the global economy has recovered, but in the near term, the downside risks have intensified.” Lin Jianhai, secretary general of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), pointed out that the world is facing a period of great development and great change, and the global economy is facing Many short-term challenges and a number of important mid- and long-term development trends.

"These changes will profoundly affect the future economic development, and we need to judge the situation and take advantage of the situation." Lin Jianhai said.

Faced with opportunities and challenges, the Central Economic Work Conference made a clear judgment: China's development is still in the long-term and important strategic opportunity period.We must be good at turning crises into opportunities, turning the crisis into safety, closely adhering to the new connotation of important strategic opportunities, accelerating the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, enhancing the ability of scientific and technological innovation, deepening reform and opening up, accelerating green development, participating in the reform of the global economic governance system, and turning pressure into a driving force to accelerate the quality of the economy.

"In the face of more complicated and grim situation, we must closely follow the new connotation of important strategic opportunities, maintain strategic strength, seize favorable conditions, prevent and resolve risks, be brave enough to act, and act positively to create a new situation in business development."Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan proposed at the National Business Work Conference held recently that it is necessary to uphold and strengthen the party's overall leadership in business work, adhere to the general tone of steady progress, adhere to the new development concept, and persist in promoting high-quality development,adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, promote all-round opening up, promote the formation of a strong domestic market, and accelerate the building of a strong economy and trade.

"Affected by long-term and short-term, internal and external factors, China's economy has changed steadily, downward pressure has increased, some enterprises have more operational difficulties, and long-term accumulated risks are exposed.We must focus on doing a good job in stabilizing employment, stabilizing finance, stabilizing foreign trade, stabilizing foreign investment, stabilizing investment, and stabilizing expectations, and ensuring that the economy operates in a reasonable range. ”Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen coordination and coordination, focus on major contradictions, grasp the rhythm and strength, and strive to achieve optimal policy mix and maximum overall effect.

In the view of Hu Min, a researcher at the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China (National School of Administration), the art of reform is particularly needed to deal with the relationship between stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention."Macro policies must be basically coordinated with industrial policies, regional policies, social policies, and reform policies to achieve optimal policy combinations and strive to achieve maximum overall results.The role of policy is to guide the market to form a stable expectation. Therefore, whether the judgment policy is effective ultimately depends on whether the vitality of the market entity can be stimulated, whether the domestic market space can be opened, or whether the economic growth rate is higher or lower. "Hu Min said.

Keyword 2: Power

Enlarge the development of new kinetic energy, stimulate the vitality of microscopic subjects

At present, the number of various market entities in China has exceeded 100 million. The term “Big water and big fish ” is used by economists to describe China’s economic development over the past 10 years.Observing whether the economic development is good, we must look at the "water" from a macro perspective, and the "fish" at the microscopic point.

The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the main contradiction of China's economic operation is still supply side structural. It must adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, unwaveringly adopt more reform methods, and more use market-oriented and rule-of-law means. "Consolidate, enhance, enhance, and smooth" eight words work hard.Work hard on the words "consolidation, enhancement, improvement, and smoothness".

Li Jin, chief researcher of China Enterprise Research Institute, believes that in the face of economic downward pressure, the top management insists on not engaging in “big flood irrigation”, but “directed drip irrigation” to the real economy, private enterprises, and small and micro enterprises, striving to maintain asset price stability and avoid Stimulate the property market and promote China's economic transformation.In this process, there will be a series of policies such as finance, taxation, currency, and industry, and eventually reach an "optimal combination" to pursue the "biggest overall effect."

"The central government recently issued some policies to stabilize the confidence of the private economy, and market confidence has recovered. However, restoring market confidence and optimizing the market environment is a lasting process. It will take a long time to make meritorious efforts, especially to implement the policies promulgated by the central government. In place, the company has a real sense of gain," said Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.

We will unswervingly deepen reforms and expand openness, and strive to improve the institutional and policy environment conducive to promoting high-quality development, boost market confidence, create a favorable environment for economic operations, and focus on stimulating the vitality of micro-subjects.In recent years, China has focused on building an economic system with effective market mechanisms, dynamic micro-mains, and macro-control, and continuously enhances China's economic innovation capability and competitiveness.

The reform of “distribution service” has been speeding up, supporting the real economy with tax reduction and fee reduction, and accelerating the implementation of the negative list system. Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the changing external environment, the pace of China’s economic restructuring has been steady.After the symposium of private entrepreneurs was held, all levels of government joined forces to help, and a series of solid measures were launched intensively, further stimulating market vitality.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that macroeconomic policies should strengthen countercyclical adjustment, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and timely fine-tune and stabilize aggregate demand;Active fiscal policies should be strengthened to improve efficiency, implement large-scale tax cuts and reduce fees, and increase the scale of local government special bonds. Steady monetary policy should be tight and moderate, maintain liquidity and reasonable liquidity, and improve monetary policy transmission mechanism. Improve the proportion of direct financing, and solve the problem of expensive financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.

Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that it is necessary to maintain the continuity of macroeconomic policies, accurately pre-adjust and fine-tune, and guide the market to form stable expectations; focus on shortcoming the board, adjust the structure, increase the stamina, expand effective investment, and reduce private investment. Getting started; promoting the upgrading of consumption supply, promoting the formation of a strong domestic market; continuing to deepen the reform of “distribution service” to create a business environment that is convenient, efficient, stable, transparent and fair.

Keyword 3: Potential

Have enough resilience, long-term good posture will not change

Promote high-quality development of manufacturing industry, promote the formation of a strong domestic market, solidly promote rural revitalization strategy, promote regional coordinated development, accelerate economic system reform, promote all-round opening up, strengthen security and improve people's livelihood... Central Economic Work Conference deployed in 2019 The seven key tasks, the pieces are very real, the pile points to the potential release.

Zhang Liqun pointed out that China is in a critical period of adjustment of the relationship between industrialization and urbanization. Accelerate the rationalization of the relationship between industrialization and urbanization, promote better integration and interaction between new industrialization and new urbanization, accelerate the improvement of software environments such as hardware, market and government services such as infrastructure and public services in large, medium and small cities, and promote production.Promote the rapid integration of production and urbanization, support the continuous improvement of urbanization rate, and support the continuous growth of employment and income. The domestic consumer market will continue to expand rapidly, which will release the huge growth potential of China's modernization and support the Chinese economy to enter a high-quality sustained and rapid growth track.